So what happened in Warsaw?

Always back the horse named self-interest, son. It’ll be the only one trying. – Jack Lang

I have reconcilled with myself that the world is not going to come to any meaningful agreement on GHG emissions any time this decade. Certainly not in time to avoid 2 degres of warming. Maybe not even for 4 degrees of warming. Realistically, probably nothing will ever be properly worked out at all. In Warsaw over the last two weeks during the UNFCCC meetings, the world went backwards on climate change policy by about a decade. Led by Australia, Canada and Japan, (three of the richest countries on the planet), many of the accepted targets and “binding” ambitions were either watered down or scrapped altogether. With new GHG emissions targets to be set in Paris in 2015 to replace the Kyoto protocol, there is little evidence that countries will set ambitious targets that will realistically keep climate change below dangerous levels.

It seems like this challenge is in the just too hard basket with countries not willing to work with others on tackling the de-carbonising of our economies. The self interest shown by Western countries in not willing to help (or even acknowledge) the plight of poorer countries (in both transforming their economies and dealing with climate change impact at the same time) means the task of world wide agreements on GHG limits is impassible. Recently I have heard a disturbing amount of government advisors talking about “dealing” with climate change instead of primarily “avoiding” climate change or secondly “reducing” climate change. It seems like to countries like Australia its business as usual and future generations can deal with the consequences they face.

That’s not to say that we should give up on reducing our fossil fuel dependence. I have no doubt that any amount of de-carbonisation of our planet is a good thing environmentally, socially, and in the long term, economically. We should be striving through technology to be using renewable energy not to avoid dangerous climate change, but because the energy flow transfer provides for a better way to power our lives.

So, what was actually achieved in Warsaw?

FINANCE

Developed nations promised in 2009 to increase their aid to poorer countries to help them cope with climate change to $100 billion a year after 2020, from $10 billion a year in 2010-12. But in Warsaw they rejected calls to set targets for 2013-19. A draft text merely urged developed nations to set “increasing levels” of aid, to be reviewed every two years.

LOSS AND DAMAGE

The talks agreed a new “Warsaw International Mechanism” to provide expertise, and possibly aid, to help developing nations cope with losses from extreme events related to climate change. The exact form of the mechanism will be reviewed in 2016.

PATH TO A 2015 DEAL

Countries agreed to announce plans for curbs on greenhouse gases beyond 2020 “well in advance” of a summit in Paris in December 2015 and “by the first quarter of 2015 for those in a position to do so”. It called the submissions “intended nationally determined contributions” – the word “intended” hinting they are open to change. Many developed nations had wanted the word “commitments”.

PRE-2020 AMBITION

The conference did not outline new targets for more near-term action to reduce emissions. Japan announced during the conference it had scaled back its 2020 target, aiming now for a 3.1-percent increase from 1990, compared to its previous promise of a 25-percent cut.

MARKETS

Talks on how to set up new market-based mechanisms to curb emissions failed because developing nations refused to advance the process unless rich countries take on tougher emissions targets.

MONITORING

Details were finalised on how countries’ emissions reductions will be monitored, reported and verified.

CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM)

The conference agreed on a measure that could boost demand for the ailing mechanism, encouraging countries without legally binding emissions targets to use carbon credits called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). A proposal to implement a floor price for CERs was removed from a technical paper while a wider review of the CDM by a technical board was pushed to talks in Bonn in March 2014.

DEFORESTATION

The conference agreed a multi-billion dollar framework to tackle deforestation. The fledgling Green Climate Fund will play a key role in channelling finance for projects to halt deforestation to host governments, who in turn must set up national agencies to oversee the money.